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Wednesday, June 28, 2006

a few thoughts on the impending tour in the light of the present market prices:
  • with only basso and ulrich in single digits odds for the yellow jersey, there is probably some good value for the win this time around if you fancy a ukranian or salvoldelli (and i couldn't blame you for either)
  • given the polka dot, green, and team competitions as well as the yellow jersey race there must be some stats arbitrage possibilities if anyone can be bothered to think about he correlations implied by the present odds (buy basso at 20+ for the dots and lay at 2s for yellow seems an obvious strategy given the possibility for settlemt between the pyrenees and the alps)
  • all the odds look like a case study in the effects of low liquidity
any thoughs in the comments greatly appreciated (sorry for recent silence - i have been working on a possible additional blogging oppertunity)

2 Comments:

Blogger Dan said...

Hardly surprising, but if I were a betfair man I'd back Popovich/McEwen/Basso in the Yellow/Green/Polka Dot Tryptich. Definitely lay Ulrich and Landis at 3.5 & 24.

In other news I also note you can get very favourable odds to both back and lay Ukraine in QF2 of the Weltmaisterschaft. Given my predictions elsewhere and Italy's frankly pedestrian form thus far it could be worth a spot.

12:30 pm  
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